Path to glory update: Tri-Nations to be decided in Brisbane

by Moses

I had originally based my deductions for this blog off RugbyHeaven's Tri-Nations table, however they haven't updated it after Saturday's game. Fair enough, it's only Wednesday. Next I looked at the PlanetRugby table , but they've resorted to making stuff up! They've manufactured an extra loss for the Wallabies and seem to have forgotten either Dunedin or Sydney for New Zealand, like many Kiwi fanboys it would seem. Fortunately the ARU are on the ball, so I'll go with their table.

In all probability, the 3N dream is over for the World Champions. Regardless of how well they play their next two tests, it'll still be out of their hands come Brisbane. The maximum possible points for RSA is 15, and even then they'd only be 1 point clear of EnZed who could win the 3N with a bonus point loss and their superior For/Against that currently stands 77 ahead of RSA.

The Blecks will finish this Tri-Nations on 14-19 competition points. They haven't lost a game in Brisbane since rugby went professional, however have lost their past two matches in Australia (Melbourne and Sydney) so the jury is out on historical advantage.

Robbie Deans and his team are well poised at this stage of the competition. To remain in the hunt we need to earn at least 2 points from the away leg in South Africa, in which case any Brisbane victory will bring home the cup. I fear the bonus point the Blecks stole in Auckland with three questionable tries and their 49 point For/Against advantage may otherwise prove decisive.

The draw is favourable for the Wallabies, with a well timed rest week scheduled between returning from SA and playing the deciding 3N matchup. Meanwhile the Kiwi's have arranged a one off match with Samoa for the week prior to Brisbane, can someone please ensure that Brian Lima is available for this fixture.

In conclusion, the results in South Africa wont decide 3N victors, but it'd still be nice to beat the World Champs on their own veld. Whichever scenario you pick it'll still come down to the Brisbane test, and had JON not sold the Bledisloe Cup to the Chinese then Brisbane could have had even more riding on it. Read more...

An Olympian rant

I realize we're supposed to be all imbued in the Olympic spirit and all, but I can't hold back any more. Here are a couple of things I need to get off my chest:

Whinge 1 - Handball
You could be mistaken for thinking that this was simply a bunch of second rate basket ballers dicking around with the water polo equipment in the gym until you realize that it's actually an Olympic sport and that it's going to roll on for the next 20 days.

Seriously, I made up more convincing "sports" than this in the playground (one of them involving drop kicking a ball through basket ball hoops).

You keep waiting for some hidden skill to be unearthed, to realize that it really is as simple as throwing a ball past a guy wearing a velour tracksuit. I thought Dodgeball was fictional, these guys could use it as a coaching manual. If ever there was a reason for rugby regaining Olympic status, this is it.

Whinge 2 - Aussie swimming
Fair enough, Phelps is a freak. But I tune into the womens 100m backstroke final for example. Two poms, yes poms and not an Aussie in sight. And then there's Sullivan getting done in the 100 in a time slower than his heat the day before, Hackett by an Algerian, the list goes on. What the f*ck is going on?

Not just in the swimming, our expertise seems to be getting silver and bronze at these games. It's simple, if we don't cane in the pool then we're stuffed.

Someone stat me wrong please, but with the poms getting ahead on the medal table, this ain't looking good. In Athens we came 4th with 19 golds. Is it possible to come close to that from here?

since writing this, just today we've nudged ahead of the poms with a couple of sailing gold. While feeling slightly better, maybe temporarily, my question over the performance in the pool still stands. Read more...

Burgess' knee, Sharpe gets the arse, Foles rolls

OK, I'm a little late on the 28 man squad for the South African tour, but hey, everything works a bit slower in rural France.

The big upsets are:
1 - Luke Burgess is out with a small tear in his miniscus (knee), sustained in training. While Burgo hasn't yet fully aclimatised to international rugby, he still injects a level of speed and dynamism that we'll need. He's not back till at best the crazy Bledisloe in Honkers.

2 - Sharpe is dropped from the squad. A big move by Aussie Robbie to eject so much experience. Perhaps the injury to Elsom tips the balance in favour of Mumm and McMenimum as cover for both lock and 6.

Other news is that Michael Foley, the current Wallabies restart (forwards) coach is off at the end of this season to join the Tahs. His reasoning is "time at home with the 4 kids", but if the face was still fitting in the Wallaby camp then I'd wager he wouldn't be taking off just yet.

Wallbies squad in South Africa
Stirling Mortlock (c), Ben Alexander, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Berrick Barnes, Al Baxter, Richard Brown, Sam Cordingley, Ryan Cross, Matt Dunning, Rocky Elsom, Adam Freier, Matt Giteau, James Horwill, Peter Hynes, Hugh McMeniman, Drew Mitchell, Dean Mumm, Stephen Moore, Wycliff Palu, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson, Brett Sheehan, George Smith, Timana Tahu, Lote Tuqiri, Lachie Turner, Phil Waugh, Dan Vickerman.. Read more...

South Africa versus New Zealand Tri-Nations Score & Review

Springboks 0 All Blacks 19

The Wallabies looked on from the stands in Capetown as these two sides belted lumps out of each other today. Unfortunately for the Saffas, this seemed to be their only gameplan.

The ABs got on the board early through a McCaw chip behind the tryline for Smith to ground just enough for the try. Due to wonky Carter radar the score stayed at 0-5 until about the 60th minute when Carter's radar managed to find his way through the Springbok midfield and score with a backwards dunk under the poles.

This was with the Saffas holding on to about 65% of the pill through the first half. The sad truth was that they just didn't know what to do with it, whether by hand or boot. In the meantime the other half of the ABs, McCaw, had managed to snuff them out at the breakdown, causing Matfield to completely lose his cool with the efeminate Goddard.

In headless chook chase mode the Boks threw a try to Mealamu as they tried to run from too deep and messy.

Good news for the Wallabies is that there were no bonus points, so the table looks like;
ABs 14
Aus 9
SA 5

So while the saffas are out of it, we're in with a big sniff, but at a minimum we need to take a bonus point away from RSA. And it all comes down to Brizzy....
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How the points add up for the Tri-Nations

by Moses

I've been staring at the points table most of the morning, and now I'm getting dizzy. Frankly, I blame New Zealand.

The Kiwi's have created this mess by losing their home game to the Springboks, and now it's up to them to return balance to the
tournament in Cape Town.

If South Africa win all three home games, they will almost certainly win the Tri-Nations. Only a bonus point extravaganza will keep the tournament alive, as three wins will give SA 17-20 points, with NZ on 10-12 and Australia 9-13 going into Brisbane.

If SA lose a home match, then all eyes turn to Brisbane. Should the team who beats them in RSA win in Brisbane, that team will be crowned champions.

A single home loss will see the Boks take 13-17 points. If Australia is the team to beat them, we'll also take 13-17 points into Brisbane, if the Blecks get their Bok on at Newlands, they'll carry 14-15 points into the final game.

Whichever way you look at it, the Tri-Nations is wide open and set for a thrilling finale.

Will the Wallabies bring home the 3N? One thing is for certain, if we do win in Brisbane then the wait to see if the ARU sold our Bledisloe to NZ in Hong Kong will be unbearable.
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Rocky's foot

I've done a Sonny Boy Williams and farked off to the south of France, although unlike SBW my holiday trip is well within my current employment contract. It won't surprise you to know that the Frogs couldn't give a flying Gallic shrug about the supposed end of the NRLs world.

Proper news wise it's all gone pretty quiet following last weekends Tri-Nations bye. The Saffas had a training run against the Argies last weekend, winning by 63-9. I would've said it wasn't a bad idea (blow away the month long cobwebs before the ABs arrive) if they hadn't lost Bakkies "baby eater" Botha and Jacques Fourie because of it.

As per Chooks Mongrel-o-meter, Bakkies packs about the same amount of mongrel as the Wallabies squad put together and the Boks style of play heavily relies on it.

Talking of injuries, the Wallabies are dealing with their own set. Ashley-Cooper is out for the first game with a busted hand, but most worringly Rocky Elsom is out of the first game, at least due to damaged foot ligaments. Even one game is very bad news when it comes to snuffling out a rampaging Burger.

On top of this LT "will at some time" require a clean up knee-op. But it's "OK as long as he doesn't train too hard". How does this work with 3 tests coming his way, 2 of them away in a country that we haven't won in for 8 years? If we still have Lote by Brisbane I'll be happily surprised.

Another worry for the first test is Horwill with a bruised ankle bone. Despite being the form Aussie lock this might make easing the lineout king Vickerman back into the side.

Aussie Robbie will have a few thoughts on his mind other than the result this weekend. Speaking of which, who should we be rooting for? Simplistically I like the idea of the Boks keeping out the ABs and then us for one test, for us to win one away and then win at home. I think this should get us there. Thoughts?
And here is the rest of it. Read more...

SANZAR gets tough on crap tours

About bloody time. In marketing speak, these tours devalue the International Rugby brand. Hats off to Ireland and England this year though.

THE contentious issue of northern hemisphere nations sending weak teams Down Under is set to come to a head at a SANZAR CEOs meeting amid threats that France may be told to stay home next June.

The French are expected to continue the contemptuous attitude of European countries to the game internationally by touring Australia and New Zealand next year with a second-string squad.

An angry New Zealand Rugby Union has set the tone by indicating it is considering scrapping the 2009 French tour of the Shaky Isles.

And ARU CEO John O'Neill backed the New Zealanders' strong stance.

link
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